On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes across 24 Iranian provinces. Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in a targeted airstrike on his Tehran compound. At least 201 people were killed on the first day alone, including 108 at a girls' elementary school in Minab.
No evidence of an imminent threat to the United States was presented. The UN Special Rapporteur stated Iran had not enriched uranium to weapon-grade. Legal scholars widely consider the strikes illegal under international law. Trump cited the 1979 embassy crisis as justification — an event 47 years ago.
But someone profited. Let's follow the money.
Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street are simultaneously among the largest shareholders of ExxonMobil, Chevron, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman. When oil surges and defense stocks soar, the same investors collect on both sides.
The biggest oil price spike in history
WTI crude surged 35.63% in a single week — the largest weekly gain since futures trading began in 1983. That's not a typo. Forty-three years of oil futures, and this was the biggest spike ever recorded.
| Benchmark | Pre-crisis | Peak | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | ~$70/barrel | $119.50 intraday | +70% |
| WTI crude | ~$65/barrel | $103.20 | +59% |
| WTI weekly gain | Biggest since 1983 | +35.6% | |
| Brent weekly gain | Biggest since April 2020 | +28% | |
Oil crossed $100/barrel for the first time in four years on March 8. By March 9, Brent spiked to $119.50 intraday — levels not seen since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global LNG and 30% of Europe's jet fuel supply passes, was effectively closed. Qatar — responsible for 20% of world LNG exports — shut down production.
Global markets crashed
| Market | Drop | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | -7% intraday | Closed -5.2% |
| Kospi (South Korea) | -6% | |
| STOXX 600 (Europe) | -4.6% weekly | Worst since April |
| DAX (Germany) | -3.4% | |
| Dow Jones | -3% weekly | -945 points intraday (Mar 9) |
| S&P 500 | -2.5% | Worst since October |
| NASDAQ | -2.7% | |
| Taiwan benchmark | -4.4% |
Ordinary people's pensions, retirement savings, and index funds lost billions. But not everyone lost.
Who profited: oil companies
ExxonMobil
+41% stock price over past year. Revenue ~$350 billion. Top shareholders: Vanguard (10.3%), BlackRock (6.9%), State Street (5.0%). 66% institutional ownership.
Chevron
+22% stock price over past year, +24% YTD. Top shareholders: Vanguard (7.6%), State Street (6.8%), BlackRock. Also Berkshire Hathaway.
Saudi Aramco
$1.67 trillion market cap — world's largest energy company. State-owned. Every dollar increase in oil price means billions more in revenue.
Who profited: defense contractors
Lockheed Martin
+34.7% YTD. Rose 3%+ the day strikes were announced. Top shareholders: State Street (14.9% voting power), Vanguard (9.2%), BlackRock (7.2%).
Northrop Grumman
+29.8% YTD. Jumped 4.6% in pre-market on March 2. Top shareholders: Vanguard (9.3%), BlackRock (5.0%). Over 80% institutional ownership.
RTX (Raytheon)
+2.8% on announcement day. Makes the Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot systems used in the strikes. Same institutional owners.
Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street are top shareholders of both the oil companies and the defense contractors. When war breaks out, the same investors collect profits from rising oil prices and from the weapons that caused them to rise. This isn't a conspiracy — it's publicly available SEC filings.
The convenient timing: Epstein files vanished from public attention
The strikes began on February 28 — the same week as peak public interest in the Epstein files. Here's the timeline:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 3 million additional Epstein pages released: 2,000 videos, 180,000 images |
| Feb 3 | New batch surfaces names: Elon Musk, Howard Lutnick, Richard Branson, Steve Bannon |
| Feb 15 | AG Bondi tells Congress DOJ released all planned files. 300+ "politically exposed persons" |
| Feb 26 | Hillary Clinton testifies behind closed doors to House Oversight Committee |
| Feb 28 | US-Israel strikes on Iran begin |
| Mar 3 | Commerce Secretary Lutnick agrees to testify about Epstein relationship |
| Mar 5-6 | DOJ releases previously withheld files containing allegations against Trump — said they were "incorrectly coded" |
The data speaks for itself: Google Trends interest in "Epstein files" crashed 95% — from a peak of ~100 in late February to ~15 after the strikes began. Iran war searches surged +1,200% simultaneously.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R): "Bombing a country on the other side of the globe won't make the Epstein files go away."
We're not drawing conclusions. We're presenting the timeline. You can decide what it means.
What European consumers are paying
While oil companies and defense contractors post record gains, ordinary Europeans are paying the price:
| Impact | Number |
|---|---|
| Dutch TTF gas prices | +70% in two trading sessions, briefly above EUR 60/MWh |
| EU average petrol price | EUR 1.57/liter |
| Eurozone inflation | Rose to 1.9% (above expectations of 1.7%) |
| Strait of Hormuz | 30% of Europe's jet fuel transits through it |
| EU gas prices vs. US | 5x higher than American consumers pay |
| EU gas storage | Near lowest levels since 2022 Russia-Ukraine war |
If energy prices remain elevated for a year, UK inflation alone could rise by an additional 0.7 percentage points. Several EU countries have already raised fuel taxes in 2026: Latvia, Portugal, and others.
The European alternative: energy independence
Europe has the companies and the technology to break the cycle. 43% of EU electricity already comes from renewables — vs. 30% globally. Here are the companies leading the way:
Vestas
World's largest wind turbine manufacturer. 189+ GW installed globally — more than any other company. Trending #1 in Denmark today.
Orsted
Completely divested from fossil fuels. Over 30% of Europe's total offshore wind capacity. 7.6 GW of offshore wind farms globally.
Iberdrola
Largest producer of wind power in Europe. Windanker offshore wind farm in German Baltic Sea scheduled operational in 2026.
Siemens Gamesa
~25,000 employees in wind energy. Blade manufacturing in Spain, Denmark, India. Key partner for European energy independence.
Every kilowatt of European renewable energy is a kilowatt that doesn't depend on the Strait of Hormuz, doesn't fund defense contractors, and doesn't spike in price when a war starts 5,000 km away.
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